Use the Force

Played a $1K guarantee on Cake. The overlay on their guarantee tournaments is usually decent; in the case of this particular tournament the buy-ins only paid 79% of the guarantee.

I made it up to 7K and first place in the tournament (from a starting stack of 3K) in about 20 hands, taking out two players with a [qc as] and more than doubling up.

After getting knocked down a couple thousand I got too cautious. A [ks 8s] came my way. Play was nine-handed, I was UTG+3 and the blinds were 125/250/25.  UTG called. UTG+1 went all-in for 1,360. UTG+2 folded. I had 6,670 chips, enough to cover all but two of the players by a couple thousand chips. K8s wins or ties 16.49% of hands at nine players, it’s in the top 15% of hands, and I typically play it in this type of situation. I folded.

Both blinds folded and the UTG caller matched the raise. It was [ac 7c] for the UTG and [td tc] for the all-in. The board ran [3c kd 5d] [9c] [4d] and the pocket pair won more than 3K that could have gone to my kings.

It was another couple of spades—[4s as]—that gave me pause in the wrong spot after I’d managed to make it up over 8K (at 150/300/30). Maybe it was because it was another A4. Nine-handed, A4s is actually a marginally better hand pre-flop than ATo.

The big blind put that player all-in. UTG+3 called (with 4,200 behind) as did I, from the button (8,100 left). The small blind raised to 1,676. He was one of the two larger stacks at the table and had another 8,700. UTG+3 re-raised all-in to 4,464. I folded and the big stack called. It was [ac js] for the big stack against a [6c 6h]. An [ah] showed on the flop, but a [4d] came on the turn. Another 10K not to me.

I managed to get up to 16K with a set of queens against a pair of kings, but was knocked out the next hand in 30th place in a battle of pocket pairs. Minimum cash.

Dialing In?

Full Tilt Midnight Madness tournament results

I’ve played Full Tilt’s Midnight Madness eight times now, mostly in the week since Christmas, with a deep run last Saturday night. Since that win, I’ve been trying to fine-tune a new strategy based on the results of my pre-flop calculator testing.

I see a few possibilities from the results above:

  1. I don’t have enough data points to accurately gauge the results of the new strategy.
  2. I’m too distracted by looking up hands on the new tables I’m using to pay attention to the rest of the action and play as well as I had been.
  3. I’m delivering consistent results but I need to get a better feel for the new strategy and improve it.
  4. The new strategy sucks compared to the old strategy.

Crowded

Full houses were my bane in a tournament tonight. I called a bet on the turn with a straight in my hand and a set of threes for the bettor, then a queen on the river paired his other card, leaving me with just a bit more than the big blind, which was a couple of hands away from me. I managed to triple up going all-in with T7o and hitting a straight just before I was forced to take whatever I was dealt, but another full house in the next round took me down for good.

Full Tilt’s Midnight Madness was a bust tonight. Only big chip win in the 40 hands I played was with a Mutant Jack, then my king-high flush was beaten by an ace-high flush.

Progress or a breakthrough on the pre-flop odds calculator I’ve been working on (or not) since last Christmas (the original Objective-C files are dated Christmas Eve, 2009). Maybe more on that soon.